Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental Hazards

The impact of climate change on the amount and temporal distribution of snow melt run off in the Amir Kabir dam watershed

fatemeh falahati

In many areas, snow cover in the mountains is a major source of surface and underground water supply. Due to climate change and its effect on the time of melting ,it is very important for environmental planning to predict the arrival time of water from snow melt to water consumption cycle. The purpose of this study is to investigate the volumetric changes and time distribution of snow flood flows in future by integrating remote sensing , GIS and climatic models.The studied area is the Upper Basin of Amir Kabir Dam, which is located on the southern slopes of Alborz Mountains. In this study, digital elevation maps (DEM) and GIS software were used to estimate parameters such as area, environment, main length, highest and lowest elevation points. In order to complete the snow cover data, MODIS products (MOD10A100) were extracted and the snow cover was extracted in the Upper Basin of Amir Kabir Dam. Next, runoff and snow melting models were simulated using SRM software. Calibration and validation of the model's acceptable performance were estimated. Then, in order to investigate the effects of climate change on the future of snowmelt runoff production in the basin of Amir Kabir Dam, the latest CMIP5 climatic models were used under four scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5. A survey on the relationship between snow cover area , temperature and precipitation was used to predict snow cover in the future. The increase in temperature in the autumn and winter season has led to a reduction in the shape of precipitation in the form of snow, and as a result, the amount of snow storm is reduced. The results show that the amount of runoff in the autumn and winter increases due to increased rainfall in the form of rain, and it will be increased late winter and spring due to the increase in the amount of water resulting from snow melting. The results of this study are based on the increase of snow melt as a result of increased runoff volume, reduction of snow reserves and maximum flow transmission to earlier than normal conditions due to early snow melting due to temperature rise. Generally, in the future, the average annual runoff will be decreased about 1.1 cubic meters per second, and the average annual melting share will be about 13.9%

Analysis of the effect of hot oppressive climate on cardiovascular mortality in Tehran metropolitan: Synoptic climatological approach

bohloul alijani

Tehran metropolitan with its large population, daily migrant workforce and many students, needs to planning and designing watch/warning system to reduce the climatic problems for human health.for this purpose, we need to study the climate accurately and Since the factors affecting the climate of warm and cold periods in Iran are different, in this study , the meteorological variables of Tehran warm period (May to September 2002) turned into 4 components in Temporal Synoptic Index (TSI) using PCA Method and using P-Array and Varimax rotation.By the scores of components for each day, the clustering method (in ward method) were used and, the warm days of the year was divided into two cluster named favorable and oppressive airmasses. The average maximum air temperature that is more effective in mortality, was 36.13 ° C. Days with temperatures above 34 ° C, less pressure, mild winds , dryness and more sunshine resulted in more adverse weather conditions, which resulted in a 34% increasing in mortality compare with favorable weather. The total number of deaths from cardiovascular disease during the study period was 154046 that about 67%of deaths have been simultaneous with oppressive airmass.The epidemiological study of mortality also confirms the results of previous research in this area and shows that the incidence of mortality is higher in older people as well as in men. It is clear that not all mortality can be attributed to the effects of climate, but results show that change in climatic conditions will affect on mortality and also for study the effect of climatic hazards on human health, it is better that we study the effect of all variables together on humans.

Spatial analysis and evaluation of pollution and health risk of heavy metals (Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb) available in Tehran Dust fall

Fatemeh Arsalani

Dust fall means the dust that in the air fall down on the ground (Hai et al, 2008). it is important to study the extent of heavy metal contamination of dust fall due to their threats that could affect human health. Due to the fact that the metropolis of Tehran has a population of over eight million people and One of the major cities in the world is currently facing a severe air pollution problem. The purpose of the present study was to determine the level of pollution and health risk of heavy metals such as Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb in the dust falling of Tehran city. the Dust fallout samples were collected using Marble Dust Collector (MDCO) from 28 different locations across Tehran during the statistical period (2018/03/21- 2018/06/21). We used XRF analysis To identify and determine the concentration of heavy metals (Cd,Cr,Cu,Ni,Pb,Fe) in the collected dust. we used to spatial analysis to determine Dispersion of pollution levels and health risk in different Zone of Tehran city. In order to determine the level of pollution and Health Risk Assessment we used the pollution index (PI), integrated pollution index (IPI), Non-Carcinogenic Risk and Carcinogenic Risk. Based on the results of the calculations performed in the statistical period studied, the values of pollution index (PI) and integrated pollution index (IPI) are Pb> Cd> Cu> Cr> Ni, respectively. Accordingly, the regional trend of pollution from west to east is increasing. Therefore, Tehran's pollution index is high level of pollution in the most zone and and extremely high level of pollution in the eastern zone, which is a more worrying situation. Probably one of the reasons is the western winds, which are faster in the west than in the east. Also, Tehran's topographic pattern plays a role in this issue. Health risk assessment (HQ, HI, CR) showed that the contamination of the heavy elements studied was lower than the acceptable threshold for carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks. Therefore, it is not dangerous in terms of carcinogenicity. The risk of carcinogenicity and non-carcinogenicity in children and adults is higher in the southern and eastern zone of Tehran. Probably one of the reasons is the establishment of metal industries, cement production, sand mines and combustion processes in the south and west of Tehran metropolis.

Indexing and effect of Regional Pressure Centers on Rainfall on the Northern Shores of the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman

halimeh kargar

Conclusion
The results showed that the length of the precipitation period in the study area is 8 months (out of 213 systems, 60 systems were recorded in January and 50 systems were recorded in December). June, July, August and December did not have a comprehensive rainfall system. The difference in height between the Mediterranean Cyclone and the Arabian Anticyclone, i.e. the MAI index, was identified in 5 categories. The results showed that the higher the value of MAI index, the less rainfall systems and the higher the rainfall intensity. Most rainfall systems occur when the MAI index reaches 100 to 150 geopotential meters. In addition, the concentration of precipitation occurred in February when the MAI index reached 200 geopotential meters and above. In the continuation of the research, the difference between the Sudan Cyclone and Arabian Anticyclone, i.e. the SAI index, was also identified in 5 categories. The results showed that most of the systems occurred in the third category with a value of SAI index between 100 and 150 geopotential meters. Moreover, the results showed that the higher the value of the SAI index (, the lower the number of rainfall systems and the higher the average of rainfall systems.

The interaction of climate, geomorphology and hydrology in creating environmental hazards in Saluk National Park and Protected Area

Gholam Reza Maghami Moghim

Objective: “The main and overall objective of this research was to identify natural hazards threatening Saluk National Park and Protected Area. In this regard, based on the assumptions of this research, in addition to the main objective, three sub-objectives were also determined for it. The sub-objectives include identifying hazards arising from climatic, geomorphological, and hydrological conditions.
Method: This research was conducted using field and library methods and descriptive analytical methods. The aim of the field studies was to identify the plant and animal species of this park and protected area, which was done using interviews with environmentalists, people living in villages adjacent to the park, and the results of censuses conducted by the Environment Organization. In library studies, concepts and definitions related to the environment and natural hazards were extracted from books available in libraries and documents of the Environment Organization. Statistics from meteorological stations in the region were used to study the climate of the region.
Results: Initial studies suggested that climatic, geomorphological, and hydrological hazards may be the most important natural hazards of the park. Based on the studies, climatic hazards including drought, frost, and frost have greater impacts in the study area. Geomorphological hazards of the park resulting from external dynamic processes including landslides, landslides, and erosion are ranked second, and hydrological hazards, especially river floods in the eastern part of the park in the Ruin River valley and the southern alluvial fans of the park, are ranked third.
Conclusions:
The most important conclusion of this research is that the natural hazards of this park naturally act as an ecological moderator. And these hazards can have detrimental effects on this park when they interact with negative human interventions, but if they are aligned with positive human actions, their effects will not have a significant destructive impact on this park.

Assessment of the Status and Analysis of Factors Affecting Land Subsidence in Urban and Suburban Areas of Garmsar

Mehdi Safari Namivandi

Objective: Land subsidence is one of the hazards that affect many plains in Iran, including the plains of Semnan province. Given that the risk of subsidence is associated with many harmful effects, this study evaluates the subsidence situation in the urban area and urban outskirts of Garmsar and analyzes the factors affecting its occurrence.
Methods: In this research, Sentinel 1 radar images, Landsat satellite images and information related to groundwater resources of the region have been used as the most important research data. The most important research tools have been ArcGIS, GMT and Google Earth Engine software. In this research, first, using the SBAS time series method, a map of the subsidence rate of the region has been prepared and then its relationship with the decline of groundwater resources and the type of land uses of the region has been investigated.
Results: Based on the results obtained, the study area has subsided between 12 and 79 mm during a one-year period (from January 2021 to January 2022), with the highest rate of subsidence in the southern outskirts of Garmsar city.
Conclusions: The results of this study also showed that the annual decline in groundwater resources in the southern wells of the region was more than 2 meters, and given that the highest rate of subsidence was also related to these areas, it can be said that the main reason for the subsidence of the region was the decline in groundwater resources. Also, based on the results, the development of human constructions, especially heavy structures, has been effective in intensifying the subsidence that has occurred.

Evaluating the conformity of villagers' performance in the field of crisis management with the framework of the description of duties of the villager's institution

Maryam Ghasemi

Rural areas, due to their close relationship with the natural environment and having limited capabilities, are highly vulnerable in the face of crises. With the establishment of village councils as a rural management institution in the country's villages, a suitable opportunity was provided to follow up, establish and continue the programs related to safety and crisis management in the rural community. Based on this, the aim of the current research is to measure the performance of fifth and sixth grade villagers in rural crisis management. The studied area is the central part of Bojnord city in North Khorasan province. The research method of the present study is descriptive-survey. In terms of the practical purpose and from the perspective of time, it was carried out in two periods of 1397 and 1401. The data collection tool is a researcher-made questionnaire. According to the description of the tasks of the rural organization, 14 tasks have been defined in the field of crisis management for villagers in three stages before, during and after the crisis. Out of a total of 77 inhabited villages, the villagers of 44 villages in the central part of Bojnord city, a total of 88 villagers have answered the questions of the questionnaire at two points in time. Data analysis was done using independent two-sample t-test and one-sample t-test in SPSS software. The results showed that 99% of the surveyed villages are exposed to floods and 95% are exposed to earthquakes. In order to compare the performance of the villagers according to the duties of the village organization, in the fifth (2018) and sixth (2024) periods, the t-test of two independent samples was used. The difference between the average performance of the villagers in the previous, during and after stages and in total the performance of the villagers in the fifth and sixth periods is average and not significant. Finally, due to the absence of a significant difference between the average performance of villagers in the fifth and sixth period, the average performance of 88 villagers in both periods was investigated with the theoretical median

Title: An Examination of the Legal Challenges of Local Governance in Enhancing Urban Resilience and Providing Reform Solutions in the Islamic Republic of Iran

Mohamadreza Baharestanfar

Objective: This study investigates the legal challenges impeding local governance in Iran from enhancing urban resilience. Despite constitutional recognition, local bodies are hampered by a centralized system, legal ambiguity, and a lack of independence. The research aims to systematically analyze these challenges and propose reform solutions to improve the relationship between central and local authorities.
Methods: The research employs a descriptive-analytical method, utilizing a review of legal documents and a comparative analysis with international experiences to dissect existing legal issues and propose reforms.
Results The findings reveal a significant gap between the ideals of participatory democracy and good governance, and Iran's reality. An institutionalist approach shows that while formal structures like councils exist, they are undermined by a weak participation culture, lack of financial and decision-making autonomy, and ineffective accountability mechanisms. This prevents the realization of true democracy and effective local governance, rendering citizen participation merely instrumental.
Conclusions: In conclusion, Iran's local governance is semi-functional and inadequate for crisis management. A multi-level reform agenda is essential, including constitutional revision, a comprehensive local governance law to ensure autonomy, and the creation of sustainable financial resources. Enhancing transparency and institutionalizing citizen participation are also critical. However, these legal and structural reforms will only succeed with a fundamental shift in political culture towards accepting responsible decentralization.

Flood Hazard Zoning in Sari County Using Machine Learning Algorithms and an Ensemble Approach

hematolah Roradeh

Objective: Floods are among the most significant natural disasters in Mazandaran Province, particularly in Sari County, where they cause widespread economic, social, and environmental damages each year. The main objective of this research is to identify and map flood hazard zones using machine learning algorithms, namely Random Forest (RF) and Support Vector Machine (SVM), and to apply an ensemble approach in order to enhance prediction accuracy and reduce model uncertainty.
Method: In this study, a set of spatial datasets including a Digital Elevation Model (DEM), land use/land cover derived from satellite imagery, geomorphological indices (slope, aspect, and drainage density), geological data, distance from roads and streams, vegetation index (NDVI), and climatic variables (precipitation and temperature) were collected. These datasets were processed using GIS and RS techniques and prepared for model training and validation. The models’ performance was assessed using evaluation metrics such as Accuracy, F1-score, AUC, and ROC curve analysis.
Findings: The results indicated that both RF and SVM demonstrated high performance in flood hazard mapping, as reflected by strong evaluation metrics. Moreover, the ensemble approach improved prediction reliability and reduced errors compared to single-model predictions. The generated maps revealed that a significant portion of Sari County falls within high and very high hazard zones, which overlap with are::as char::acterized by intense rainfall, high drainage density, and steep slopes.
Conclusion: This research highlights that machine learning algorithms, particularly when applied in an ensemble framework, are powerful tools for identifying flood-prone areas. The findings can serve as a scientific basis for urban planning, disaster management, and flood risk reduction strategies in Sari County and other comparable regions.

Environmental Risk Assessment in Tourism Destinations and Strategies for Reducing It in Dezful County

Moslem Savari

Objective: Risk assessment in tourism destinations plays an important role in maintaining tourist safety and environmental sustainability. Identifying potential threats such as natural disasters, overcrowding, cultural damage, and social hazards provides the basis for more accurate planning and more effective tourism management. The present study was conducted with the aim of assessing environmental risks in the tourist areas of Dezful County.
Methods: The statistical population included tourists from rural areas of Dezful County, which, according to the statistics of the Cultural Heritage Organization, are visited by more than 10 million people annually. The sample size was determined as 384 people using the Krejci and Morgan table, and sampling was carried out randomly. In this study, 33 villages in four districts of the county were examined. The data were analyzed using a questionnaire and confirmatory factor analysis.
Results: According to the results of the study, only the Choghamish district faces high political risks, and the other districts have a moderate threat in this area. In the area of financial and economic risks, the matter is different, and only the central district faces a moderate threat, and the other districts face a high level of threat. However, the most important result of this study was in the area of social risks, where all districts showed a low level of threat, which indicates appropriate security and comfort for tourists traveling to this city. The results of the study also show a moderate level of environmental risks in the Shahyoun, Sardasht, and Choghamish districts, and even in the central district, these risks are in the low priority range. The results of the confirmatory factor analysis of tourism risk reduction strategies in Dezful city were classified into information and educational factors, legal and security factors, precautionary factors, and infrastructure factors.
Conclusions: The present study showed that social risks in Dezful county are at a low level and the security of tourists is ensured. However, economic and environmental risks in some sectors require more attention and management. Implementing the proposed solutions can help improve the quality of the tourism experience and the sustainable development of the region.

Land, Political Ecology, and Spatial Resilience: Mechanisms of Land-Use Change in Tension with Spatial Resilience and Passive Defense (A Case Study of Shemiranat County – Lavasanat Region)

Mehrdad Karami

The phenomenon of land-use change in the peripheral areas of Tehran Metropolis, particularly within the Lavasanat region, has transformed over the past two decades from a merely physical and economic process into a strategic issue in spatial governance, territorial resilience, and passive defense. This study aims to elucidate the institutional, spatial, and ecological mechanisms influencing land-use change and its consequences for the region’s spatial resilience, adopting an integrated approach and employing both qualitative and quantitative methods. Data were collected from three main sources: content analysis of legal and policy documents related to land management, semi-structured interviews with experts and local officials, and spatial analysis of land cover data using a land-use change prediction model. Findings indicate that land-use change in Lavasanat results from the simultaneous interaction of three levels of action: the degradation of ecological structures—which has reduced the land’s natural capacity to absorb and mitigate environmental hazards—, institutional weaknesses that have undermined land monitoring and control, and spatial concentration that has heightened exposure to risks. Concurrent with the sharp decline of agricultural lands and the loss of natural buffer zones, these transformations have weakened environmental functions, intensified physical vulnerability, and reduced the efficiency of passive defense.
Analytical results suggest that Lavasanat is undergoing a transition from a stable spatial system to a fragile and defenseless one. The process of land-use change in this region is not merely the outcome of demographic or economic pressures but rather a reflection of the disruption in spatial governance and institutional deficiencies in land management. Consequently, what appears outwardly as "development" has, in practice, led to a gradual process of "territorial defenselessness" and the erosion of both ecological and institutional resilience.