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.ghorbanisepehr P, Mottaghi A, .ghorbanisepehr A. (2026). Analysis of Key Drivers of Trans-regional Threats to Iran with a Futures Studies Approach. jgs. 25,
URL: http://jgs.khu.ac.ir/article-1-4533-fa.html
URL: http://jgs.khu.ac.ir/article-1-4533-fa.html
.ghorbanisepehr parisa، Mottaghi Afshin، ghorbanisepehr Arash.(1404). Analysis of Key Drivers of Trans-regional Threats to Iran with a Futures Studies Approach تحقیقات کاربردی علوم جغرافیایی 25 ()
1- Kharazmi University ، parisa.ghorbanisepehr98@gmail.com
2- Kharazmi University،
2- Kharazmi University،
چکیده: (1148 مشاهده)
Extra-regional threats refer to a set of military, security, political, and economic measures or pressures exerted by countries or coalitions from outside a specific geographical region against the interests and security of a country. These threats typically exploit geographical distance, modern warfare tools, comprehensive sanctions, and the establishment of influence in neighboring countries to undermine stability and limit the regional power of the target. This research has been conducted with the aim of identifying and analyzing the key drivers affecting trans-regional threats to Iran using a future studies approach, in order to analyze the systemic structure of these threats and outline the most probable scenario ahead. The method of this research is mixed (quantitative-qualitative). For this purpose, initial indicators were extracted through multi-stage interviews with a panel of 15 experts and then screened using the Delphi method. In the next stage, a cross-impact analysis questionnaire was administered to 15 specialists and experts, and the data were structurally analyzed using MICMAC software. The distribution of variables on the influence-dependence map indicates the instability of Iran's trans-regional threats system. Among the 49 variables examined across five dimensions—political, economic, socio-cultural, defense-security, and natural-environmental—three variables were identified as the most key drivers and as dual-risk/target variables: new regional coalitions in Iran's periphery involving global powers (P3), pressure on countries party to agreements with Iran to terminate cooperation (P7), and new trans-regional political coalitions against Iran's political positions (P1). Furthermore, the variable "keeping the minds of the country's decision-makers occupied with domestic issues" (P8) ranked first in terms of direct influence. The results of the research indicate that the future of trans-regional threats to Iran can be depicted in the form of the "Intelligent Siege" scenario. In this scenario, trans-regional powers, through regional and trans-regional coalition-building and severing Iran's contractual ties with the world, drive the country toward strategic passivity and reduced room for maneuver without a full-scale military war. The paradigm shift of threats from a purely military nature to political, cognitive, and intelligent threats is the most important characteristic of the future of these threats.
واژههای کلیدی: Future Studies، Trans-regional Threats، Structural Analysis، Iran's National Security.
نوع مطالعه: كاربردي |
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جغرافیای سیاسی
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